Note: All odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and subject to change. For the purpose of this post, all ranks are from the AP Poll.
Friday
Memphis Tigers at No. 17 Houston Cougars (-9.5, 60.5), 9 ET on ESPN2
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Memphis has failed to cover eight straight road games under Ryan Silverfield (since 2020), tied for the longest active streak in FBS with Duke.
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Memphis has covered six straight meetings dating to 2015.
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Memphis is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games against ranked opponents (1-1 ATS under Silverfield).
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Memphis is 4-10 ATS against conference opponents under Silverfield.
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Houston is 12-4-1 ATS in games off fewer than six days rest since 2014, including 4-2 ATS under Dana Holgorsen (since 2019).
No. 23 San Diego State Aztecs (-10.5, 41) at UNLV Rebels, 11:30 ET
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San Diego State is 5-12 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2018, but are 4-2 ATS when laying 10 or more points under Brady Hoke (since 2020).
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The under is 7-1 in games involving San Diego State under Hoke in November or later.
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The total has gone under in five of San Diego State’s last six games after the over went 3-1 in the Aztecs’ first four games of the season.
Saturday
No. 7 Michigan State Spartans at No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes (-19, 67), Noon ET on ABC
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This would be the second-largest spread between AP top-7 teams since the 1978 FBS/FCS split. The largest is No. 3 Florida State as a 21.5-point favorite against No. 7 Miami on Nov. 2, 2013 (FSU won 41-14).
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Michigan State is 7-3 ATS this season, including 3-0 ATS as an underdog.
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Ohio State has covered four straight meetings dating to 2017.
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Ohio State has failed to cover five of its last six games against ranked opponents (5-8 ATS since Ryan Day’s first full season in 2019).
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Both teams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against AP top-10 teams.
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The over is 6-1 in games involving Michigan State under Melvin Tucker (since 2020) in November or later.
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Michigan State is 5-12 ATS in games in November or later since 2018, including 2-5 ATS under Tucker.
Iowa State Cyclones at No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners (-4, 60), Noon ET
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Iowa State is 20-8 ATS following a loss under Matt Campbell (since 2016), the best mark in FBS over that span (min. 20 games). That includes five straight covers.
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The over is 4-1 in games involving Oklahoma under Lincoln Riley (since 2017) when the Sooners are coming off a loss.
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Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS under Riley when facing Iowa State.
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Iowa State is 22-10 ATS as an underdog under Campbell.
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The under is 19-8-1 in games involving Iowa State under Campbell in November or later.
No. 13 Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Clemson Tigers (-4, 56.5), Noon ET on ESPN
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Clemson is 2-8 ATS this season, tied for the third-worst cover percentage in FBS. Only New Mexico (1-9 ATS) and Indiana (1-8 ATS) have been worse.
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Clemson has failed to cover four straight games against teams with winning records (all this season).
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Clemson is 7-14 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2020, the 3rd-worst cover percentage in FBS among teams to be favored at least 15 times over that span. Only Florida (5-11-1 ATS) and UCF (5-11 ATS) have been worse.
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Wake Forest is 20-10-1 ATS against Clemson since 1990, including 5-2 ATS under Dave Clawson (since 2014).
No. 21 Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-20.5, 58), 3:30 ET
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Alabama is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season, the best cover percentage in FBS over that span.
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Alabama is 15-7 ATS when favored since the start of last season, tied with UTSA for the fourth-best cover percentage in FBS over that span. Only Georgia State (14-5-1 ATS), Liberty (15-6 ATS) and Nevada (13-6 ATS) have been better.
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Arkansas is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games as an underdog, including 9-4 ATS under Sam Pittman (since 2020).
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Alabama has covered 11 of its last 15 games against conference opponents.
SMU Mustangs at No. 3 Cincinnati Bearcats (-11.5, 65), 3:30 ET on ESPN
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Cincinnati has failed to cover four straight games (all as a double-digit favorite) after starting the season 5-1 ATS.
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Cincinnati is 3-0 ATS against teams with winning records this season.
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SMU is 9-15 ATS in road games since 2018, the Mustangs’ first full season under Sonny Dykes. That includes 1-4 ATS this season.
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Five straight meetings have gone under the total.
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SMU is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against ranked opponents (5-3 ATS overall under Dykes).
No. 8 Michigan Wolverines (-15, 56.5) at Maryland Terrapins, 3:30 ET
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Maryland is 1-9 ATS against ranked opponents in Mike Locksley’s second stint with the team (since 2019), including nine straight ATS losses, the longest active streak in FBS.
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Michigan is 8-2 ATS this season, tied with four other teams for the best cover percentage in FBS.
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Maryland is 5-12 ATS as an underdog since 2019, including 1-5 ATS this season.
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Michigan has covered five straight meetings dating to 2015.
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Michigan has covered 14 of its last 20 games as a favorite, including four of five as a double-digit favorite this season.
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Maryland has failed to cover nine straight games against conference opponents, the longest active streak in FBS.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at No. 19 Wisconsin Badgers (-9.5, 42), 3:30 ET on ABC
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Wisconsin has covered five of its last six games, including four straight (all as a favorite), following a 1-3 ATS start to the season.
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Nebraska is 0-4 ATS following a bye under Scott Frost (since 2018).
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Nebraska has covered eight of its last 10 games following a loss.
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Nebraska has covered five of its last six games as an underdog.
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Wisconsin has covered five straight games against conference opponents, tied for the third-longest streak in FBS with Georgia State.
Virginia Cavaliers at No. 20 Pittsburgh Panthers (-14.5, 66), 3:30 ET on ESPN2
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Virginia is 0-3 ATS against ranked opponents this season, with a -14.5 cover margin per game, the second worst in FBS among teams with at least three games against ranked opponents. Only Maryland (-19.0) has been worse.
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Pittsburgh is 8-2 ATS this season, tied with four other teams for the best cover percentage in FBS.
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Six of the last seven meetings have gone under the total, including three straight since 2017.
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Virginia has covered three straight as a double-digit underdog while Pittsburgh is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games as a double-digit favorite (6-11-1 ATS under Pat Narduzzi).
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Pittsburgh is 10-4 ATS in games off more than six days rest over the last five seasons (all under Narduzzi), including five straight covers.
UAB Blazers at No. 15 UTSA Roadrunners (-4.5, 53.5), 3:30 ET on ESPN+
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UTSA is 8-2 ATS this season, tied with four other teams for the best cover percentage in FBS.
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The under is 5-0 in UTSA home games this season (1-4 on the road).
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UAB has covered four straight road games.
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UAB has won four straight meetings outright by an average margin of 20.3 points.
No. 22 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at Liberty Flames (-4.5, 53), 4 ET on ESPNU
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Liberty is 15-6-1 ATS as a favorite under Hugh Freeze (since 2019), including 11-2-1 ATS as a home favorite. Both are the best cover percentages in FBS over that span (min. 10 games). Liberty has covered eight straight as a home favorite, the longest active streak in FBS.
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Liberty is 9-2 ATS under Freeze in games in November or later.
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Louisiana is 15-2 outright in road games since 2019, Billy Napier’s second season at the helm.
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The under is 8-2 in games involving Louisiana this season.
Auburn Tigers (-7.5, 44.5) at South Carolina Gamecocks, 7 ET on ESPN
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The under is 8-1 in Auburn road games since the start of last season, including 3-1 this season under Bryan Harsin.
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South Carolina has failed to cover five of its last six games against conference opponents this season.
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The under is 4-1 in South Carolina home games this season (1-4 on the road).
No. 4 Oregon Ducks at No. 24 Utah Utes (-3, 59), 7:30 ET on ABC
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This would be the fourth time since the 1978 FBS/FCS split that a AP top-5 team is an underdog against a team outside the top 20. The previous instances all involved unranked opponents and the top-5 team lost all three.
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Oregon is 6-1 ATS when the line is between -3 and +3 since 2018, the Ducks’ first full season under Mario Cristobal.
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The over is 8-2 in games involving Utah this season.
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Oregon has covered three straight games as a road underdog since the start of last season and five of its last six as an underdog, regardless of venue.
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The total has gone over in seven of the last eight meetings dating to 2009.
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Utah has covered 14 of its last 21 games as a home favorite.
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Utah is 5-24 outright in the AP Poll Era (since 1936) against top-10 opponents, including 3-10 under Kyle Whittingham.
Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 10 Ole Miss Rebels (-36.5, 64.5), 7:30 ET
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This would be the most points Ole Miss has been favored by against a Power 5 opponent since the 1978 FBS/FCS split. Prior to this, the Rebels were a 26.5-point favorite against Vanderbilt in 2015 (W, 27-16).
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Lane Kiffin is 1-3-1 ATS in his career when laying 35 or more points (0-0-1 with Ole Miss).
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Ole Miss is 4-1-1 ATS at home this season, including three straight covers.
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The total has gone under in five straight games involving Ole Miss.
No. 9 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-10.5, 56.5) at Texas Tech Red Raiders, 8 ET
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Oklahoma State is 16-8-1 ATS in games against conference opponents since 2019, including eight straight covers, tied with East Carolina for the longest active streak in FBS.
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Oklahoma State has covered five straight road games, tied for the longest active streak in FBS.
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Oklahoma State is 8-2 ATS this season, tied with four other teams for the best cover percentage in FBS.
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Texas Tech has covered five straight meetings dating to 2016.
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The over is 10-2 when Texas Tech faces a ranked opponent since 2018.
