CALGARY –
Oil output from Canada, the world’s fourth-largest producer, is set to climb over the next decade to peak at 5.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2032, the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) said on Thursday.
The country’s oil production, seen at 5 million bpd in 2021, is likely to remain resilient despite relatively low oil prices and relatively ambitious climate policies, the regulator said in its annual long-term energy outlook.
Under the CER’s main “Evolving Policies’ scenario, which expects action to cut carbon emissions from global energy systems will continue at its current pace, Canadian production will decline only slightly to 4.8 million bpd by 2050.
“The resilience is really owing to the unique nature of the oil sands, once they are built they are very long-lived and operating costs are quite low,” the CER’s chief economist Darren Christie told a news conference.
“The vast majority of oil sands production we have in 2050 is coming from facilities that are already producing today.”
Northern Alberta’s vast oil sands account for nearly two-thirds of Canada’s total production.
The peak of 5.8 million bpd is unchanged from last year’s projection, but comes seven years earlier than previously forecast. The CER said the rebound in oil prices from last year’s pandemic-related crash meant near-term production would grow more quickly than previously anticipated.
Canadian natural gas production is expected to remain close to current production levels of 15.5 billion cubic feet a day (bcfd) over the next two decades, before declining to 13.1 bcfd by 2050.
In its central scenario, the CER expects Canada’s fossil fuel use will decline 40% by 2050, but said the country will not be able to achieve net-zero carbon emissions unless it makes more drastic changes.
