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Bill Connelly
I honestly hate making predictions. Sometimes I overthink and overanalyze them to death, sometimes I try to find alternative approaches, and sometimes I simply aim for glory. No matter what, I usually end up incorrect. I think of sports in terms of odds, not guarantees, and asking me to declare what will happen ends up poorly for everyone involved.
Odds, meanwhile, are useful but unsatisfying. I can tell you that my SP+ ratings think Ohio State is the preseason national title favorite, and that will sound pretty definitive until you see that the odds of a Buckeye title are about 1-in-7. Even a well-regarded projections system won’t tell you anything particularly definitive in the preseason, and you will come away from an odds summary both well-informed and underwhelmed.
With the 2026 college football season kicking off in earnest Thursday, I will try to give you the best of both worlds. Below, you’ll find the odds for the national title race and all conference title races, based on 1 million simulations using the preseason SP+ projections (and the inherent volatility that comes from such simulations).
But a million realities is a lot of realities — enough for every FBS team to reach the CFP at least once (even you, UMass) — so there’s something for everyone. I’ll share some of the individual simulations I plucked at random, just as I did before the rollout of the 12-team playoff a couple of years ago and as colleague Seth Walder likes to do on the pro side. I’ll also share some utterly incredible realities that I sought out. Sound like a decent plan?
Who should win the national title in 2026?
Let’s start at the highest level. Here are the 20 teams that have the best chance of winning the national title, per SP+.
Highest national title odds, per SP+
1. Ohio State (14.2%)
2. Oregon (11.1%)
3. Notre Dame (10.4%)
4. Georgia (7.4%)
5. Indiana (7.1%)
6. Texas Tech (4.6%)
7. Miami (4.4%)
8. LSU (4.1%)
9. Texas (3.6%)
10. Texas A&M (2.9%)
11. Missouri (1.8%)
12. Penn State (1.8%)
13. Virginia (1.7%)
14. Alabama (1.7%)
15. Oklahoma (1.6%)
16. Tennessee (1.5%)
17. Michigan (1.4%)
18. BYU (1.4%)
19. Washington (1.3%)
20. Ole Miss (1.2%)
This list fascinates me. It correlates pretty well to the SP+ ratings, as one would expect, but there are lots of other factors: Big games that could flip certain teams’ seasons in different directions, strong and weak overall schedules — admittedly, you have to take some educated guesses to figure out how the College Football Playoff committee might respond to the SEC’s nine-game schedules and the inevitable 9-3 SEC teams with strong résumés — and, perhaps most interesting, the volatility that has followed teams that sign huge transfer classes.
That last point is important: Though SP+ preseason projections perform pretty well, there’s still a range of potential outcomes, especially for teams taking on loads of transfers. They could end up quite a bit higher or lower than their projected rating, and that range of quality impacts these odds.
Take Ohio State, for instance. For the Buckeyes to win the national title, even as the comfortable No. 1 team in SP+, they will need to (a) be as good as they’re supposed to be (not a guarantee, even though they aren’t a transfer-heavy program), (b) win at least nine or 10 regular-season games (likely, but they have a pretty hard schedule) and then (c) win three to four CFP games. Even if you have a 70% win probability in each playoff game — and you probably won’t because there are lots of good teams in the CFP — there’s only about a 34% chance you would win three in a row and a 24% chance you win four. Title odds get pretty low pretty quickly.
There’s a lot of randomness and good fortune involved in winning the title, even if you’re likely going to be an excellent team. But we know who should at least start the season atop the pile.
Who will make the College Football Playoff?
Last year, preseason SP+ ratings gave five teams a greater than 35% chance of reaching the CFP: Penn State (43.5%), Ohio State (43.0%), Michigan (37.9%), Notre Dame (36.8%) and Georgia (35.2%). Combine those percentages, and you see that even among those favorites, only 2.0 of them, on average, were expected to get there. Two did (Ohio State and Georgia). Meanwhile, 40 teams had between a 10% and 35% chance of making the playoff; 7.4 were expected to make it on average, and eight did.
This year, seven teams have a greater than 35% chance of making the dance: Notre Dame (71.6%), Ohio State (59.1%), Oregon (58.8%), Texas Tech (55.1%), Indiana (53.1%), Georgia (50.5%) and Miami (46.2%). Those are higher odds than last year’s top teams, but on average, only about four will get there. That leaves plenty of room for fun surprises.
Broken out by individual power conferences and the Group of 6, here are the teams that have at least a 5% chance of making the CFP. These projections came from SP+ ratings that were updated for Week 0 performances (hence, the surprisingly high numbers for Virginia and North Dakota State).
SEC: Georgia (50.5%), LSU (32.2%), Texas A&M (27.9%), Texas (27.5%), Alabama (21.5%), Tennessee (20.2%), Missouri (19.1%), Oklahoma (17.9%), Ole Miss (15.7%), Florida (12.8%), Auburn (10.8%), South Carolina (9.4%), Vanderbilt (8.0%)
Big Ten: Ohio State (59.1%), Oregon (58.8%), Indiana (53.1%), Penn State (28.6%), Washington (20.7%), Iowa (18.5%), Michigan (17.5%), USC (15.5%), Illinois (10.7%), UCLA (7.6%), Minnesota (6.4%), Wisconsin (6.0%), Nebraska (6.0%), Maryland (5.5%), Rutgers (5.4%)
Big 12: Texas Tech (55.1%), BYU (28.4%), Utah (18.5%), Kansas State (18.4%), Arizona (16.1%), Houston (14.6%), Oklahoma State (11.0%), Baylor (7.6%), UCF (7.5%), Kansas (7.5%), Colorado (6.7%), Arizona State (5.5%), TCU (5.4%), Cincinnati (5.1%)
ACC: Miami (46.2%), Virginia (32.1%), Louisville (19.8%), SMU (19.5%), Clemson (17.2%), Virginia Tech (10.4%), Pitt (9.2%), California (9.1%), North Carolina (7.4%), Florida State (7.4%), Georgia Tech (5.1%)
Indies: Notre Dame (71.6%)
Group of 6: North Dakota State (12.6%), James Madison (9.5%), UNLV (7.0%), USF (5.5%), Boise State (5.2%)
That’s 59 teams with at least a 1-in-20 chance, by the way. Delightful.
Who are the conference title favorites?
Let’s lay out the conference title odds while we’re at it.
American: Memphis (23.6%), Navy (14.6%), UTSA (11.2%), USF (11.0%), East Carolina (8.3%), Army (8.0%), Florida Atlantic (5.9%), Tulane (5.6%), Tulsa (4.3%), North Texas (3.0%), Temple (2.9%), UAB (1.0%), Rice (0.6%), Charlotte (0.1%)
ACC: Miami (29.0%), Virginia (14.1%), Louisville (10.0%), SMU (10.0%), Clemson (8.2%), Virginia Tech (4.6%), California (3.8%), Florida State (3.6%), Pitt (3.3%), North Carolina (3.2%), Georgia Tech (2.2%), Duke (2.0%), Wake Forest (1.9%), Stanford (1.7%), NC State (1.2%), Syracuse (0.8%), Boston College (0.3%)
Big 12: Texas Tech (29.7%), BYU (14.7%), Utah (7.1%), Arizona (6.6%), Kansas State (6.2%), Oklahoma State (5.8%), Houston (5.4%), TCU (4.0%), Baylor (3.4%), Colorado (3.3%), Kansas (3.0%), Arizona State (2.9%), UCF (2.7%), Cincinnati (1.9%), Iowa State (1.7%), West Virginia (1.5%)
Big Ten: Ohio State (30.7%), Oregon (23.9%), Indiana (16.2%), Penn State (5.3%), Michigan (4.9%), Washington (4.2%), USC (3.8%), Iowa (3.1%), Illinois (1.6%), UCLA (1.3%), Nebraska (1.1%), Wisconsin (1.0%), Minnesota (0.8%), Maryland (0.6%), Rutgers (0.6%), Michigan State (0.4%), Northwestern (0.3%), Purdue (0.1%)
Conference USA: Liberty (25.5%), Western Kentucky (18.9%), Jacksonville State (14.9%), Kennesaw State (10.1%), Delaware (9.4%), New Mexico State (9.3%), Florida International (7.2%), Missouri State (3.1%), Sam Houston (0.9%), Middle Tennessee (0.7%)
MAC: Miami (Ohio) (22.4%), Western Michigan (19.1%), Toledo (15.0%), Eastern Michigan (11.6%), Ohio (9.3%), Buffalo (7.0%), Central Michigan (6.0%), Bowling Green (4.3%), Kent State (1.6%), Akron (1.5%), Sacramento State (1.1%), Ball State (1.0%), UMass (0.2%)
Mountain West: North Dakota State (29.6%), UNLV (19.7%), New Mexico (16.2%), Air Force (11.9%), Hawaii (10.1%), San Jose State (4.9%), Wyoming (3.5%), Nevada (2.6%), Northern Illinois (0.9%), UTEP (0.6%)
Pac-12: Boise State (31.1%), San Diego State (16.3%), Texas State (13.3%), Fresno State (12.1%), Washington State (8.2%), Oregon State (8.2%), Utah State (7.0%), Colorado State (3.8%)
SEC: Georgia (21.0%), Texas (12.5%), LSU (12.0%), Texas A&M (9.5%), Oklahoma (6.7%), Alabama (6.6%), Missouri (6.3%), Tennessee (6.1%), Ole Miss (5.2%), Florida (3.8%), Auburn (3.1%), South Carolina (2.6%), Vanderbilt (1.7%), Arkansas (1.3%), Kentucky (1.0%), Mississippi State (0.7%)
Sun Belt: James Madison (25.4%), Old Dominion (12.1%), Marshall (9.6%), Louisiana (7.9%), Troy (7.5%), Louisiana Tech (7.3%), Arkansas State (7.1%), Appalachian State (6.3%), Georgia Southern (6.2%), Coastal Carolina (4.8%), South Alabama (3.5%), Southern Miss (1.7%), Georgia State (0.4%), Louisiana-Monroe (0.2%)
Individual simulations
So, that’s the world according to what should happen. Here’s what will happen, at least according to some simulations. I tried to find a reality that will satisfy just about everyone, especially the chaos lovers out there.
Simulation No. 1: CFP upsets!
On the first simulation of the exercise, a wild and unpredictable season gives us an extremely predictable national title game. (Ain’t that how it goes?) The SEC devours itself, with Georgia and Texas going 8-4, LSU and Oklahoma going 7-5 and surprising Tennessee both playing in its first SEC championship game in 19 years and winning its first in 28, toppling Alabama by five points. Tennessee, Alabama and Jon Sumrall’s surprising Florida secure CFP bids.
The Big Ten mostly goes as planned — Oregon goes 11-1, Ohio State and Indiana go 10-2, and Ohio State takes out Oregon by three points in the championship game — and the Big 12 gives us a predictable Texas Tech (11-1) vs. BYU (10-2) title game rematch. The ACC, however, gets weird, too: Duke rides a regular-season upset of former Blue Devils QB Darian Mensah and Miami to a surprising repeat appearance in the ACC championship game, but the Hurricanes win the rematch by 17.
The Group of 6 race takes some incredible late twists: 8-4 Memphis upsets 10-2 USF in the American championship game, while 7-5 Washington State upsets 10-2 Boise State in the Pac-12. So, with a 12-point win over Hawaii in the Mountain West title game, North Dakota State lands a CFP berth in its first FBS season.
CFP first round
• No. 9 USC (9-3) at No. 8 Alabama (10-3) — Bama wins by 2
• No. 12 North Dakota State (11-2) at No. 5 Tennessee (11-2) — NDSU wins by 4!
• No. 11 BYU (10-3) at No. 6 Oregon (11-2) — Oregon by 15
• No. 10 Florida (9-3) at No. 7 Indiana (10-2) — Florida by 1!
Bison over SEC champs! Gators over defending champs! We get the first couple of genuinely surprising first-round upsets of the 12-team CFP era.
Quarterfinals
• Peach Bowl: No. 1 Miami (12-1) vs. No. 8 Alabama (11-3) — Miami by 20
• Rose Bowl: No. 4 Ohio State (11-2) vs. No. 12 North Dakota State (12-2) — Buckeyes by 28
• Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Texas Tech (12-1) vs. No. 6 Oregon (12-2) — Oregon by 20
• Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Notre Dame (11-1) vs. No. 10 Florida (10-3) — Irish by 38
As tends to happen in March Madness, one chaotic round begets a round of blowouts. So be it. Anything is worth “NDSU beats the SEC champ in the CFP.” That’s the reality in which I want to live.
Semifinals
• Orange Bowl: No. 1 Miami (13-1) vs. No. 4 Ohio State (12-2) — Buckeyes by 7
• Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Notre Dame (12-1) vs. No. 6 Oregon (13-2) — Ducks by 7
Ohio State gets playoff revenge over the Canes, while Oregon reaches its first national title game since 2014 (when the Ducks lost to Ohio State).
Final
• No. 4 Ohio State (13-2) vs. No. 6 Oregon (14-2) — Ducks by 1
In the third Ohio State-Oregon game of the season, Oregon finally joins the first-timers club with a classic win. And the Big Ten has its fourth different national champ in four years.
Simulation No. 468,935: Irish ayes
In our next random reality, a different team breaks a long drought: Notre Dame.
Indiana goes 8-4, and Texas again misses the CFP by going 9-3 and losing the SEC championship game to Georgia. A whopping 11 SEC teams win between seven and nine games, and though Texas Tech loses back-to-back games late in the regular season to miss out on the Big 12 championship game, it still makes the CFP because the SEC destroyed itself. No one in the ACC goes better than 9-3 overall, and Old Dominion is the best team in the G6 but gets upset by Arkansas State in the Sun Belt title game. The beneficiary of the upset? James Madison, which lost only to ODU and finished 11-1. The new “top-ranked G6 team gets in, whether or not it’s a conference champion” rule benefits the Dukes.
Texas Tech is the story of the CFP: The Red Raiders obliterate 9-3 Alabama in the first round, then topple surprising 12-1 Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl. With unbeaten Notre Dame outlasting Ohio State in the Orange Bowl semifinal, the Red Raiders arrange to meet the Irish in Vegas, thanks to a five-point upset of 12-2 Georgia. But instead of getting another first-time champ, we get Notre Dame’s first national title since 1988; the Irish beat the Red Raiders by six.
Simulation No. 3,750: Duck dynasty?
The SEC gives us a very different reality in this one: Georgia and Texas each go 12-0, and the Dawgs win a blowout in Atlanta for the conference title. Meanwhile, a four-way tie atop the Big Ten (Oregon, Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa) produces an Oregon-Michigan title game, won by Kyle Whittingham’s Wolverines in an upset. The G6 race is a battle between 12-1 James Madison and 12-1 New Mexico; Jason Eck’s Lobos get the spot with a slightly better strength of schedule.
The real chaos is again found in the ACC: The league’s “a few teams will have to play eight games instead of nine because a 17-team conference is a ridiculous number” approach gives us a four-way “tie” between 7-2 Miami, 7-2 Louisville, 6-2 Clemson and 6-2 Florida State. I think Miami and Louisville win that tiebreaker, but honestly I’m not sure. Miami wins the title game, and the last two playoff spots are taken from a pool of 10-3 Big 12 title game loser BYU, 9-3 Vanderbilt, 9-3 Iowa, 9-3 Penn State, 12-1 JMU and 10-2 Kansas State. Messy. We’ll say the bids go to Vandy and Iowa.
The CFP early rounds are rather routine, with only No. 7 Oregon’s upset of No. 2 Miami preventing us from a chalky semifinal. But the semis give us surprises: Texas Tech upsets unbeaten Georgia, and Oregon upends 13-1 Texas. And once again, Oregon takes home the crown, cruising by 17 over the Red Raiders.
Simulation No. 745,384: Franklin’s revenge
Let’s get weird now. Instead of grabbing sims at random, let’s look for some specific (and specifically wild) outcomes. Can I interest you in a reality in which James Franklin’s Virginia Tech beats Penn State in a playoff game … and then keeps winning?
CFP first round
• No. 9 Virginia Tech (10-3) at No. 8 Penn State (11-1) — Tech by 9
• No. 12 UNLV (11-2) at No. 5 Texas A&M (11-2) — A&M by 1
• No. 11 USC (9-3) at No. 6 Miami (11-2) — Miami by 15
• No. 10 Texas (9-3) at No. 7 LSU (11-2) — Texas by 10
Quarterfinals
• Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Texas Tech (13-0) vs. No. 9 Virginia Tech (11-3) — Tech by 12
• Peach Bowl: No. 4 Notre Dame (11-1) vs. No. 5 Texas A&M (12-2) — Irish by 25
• Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Oregon (12-1) vs. No. 6 Miami (12-2) — Ducks by 24
• Rose Bowl: No. 2 Indiana (12-1) vs. No. 7 Texas (10-3) — Texas by 18
Semifinals
• Orange Bowl: No. 4 Notre Dame (12-1) vs. No. 9 Virginia Tech — Tech by 2!
• Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Oregon (13-1) vs. No. 7 Texas (11-3) — Ducks by 23
Final
• No. 3 Oregon (14-1) vs. No. 9 Virginia Tech (13-3) — Ducks by 19
Simulation No. 18,541: SEC chaos
With so many teams potentially bunched together, the SEC really has some extreme nonsense potential this year, especially if Georgia and Texas are merely very good instead of incredible. But there’s chaos, and there’s chaos. This simulation featured the latter.
SEC standings
Missouri 8-1 (11-1)
South Carolina 8-1 (11-1)
Georgia 6-3 (9-3)
Tennessee 6-3 (9-3)
Ole Miss 6-3 (9-3)
Oklahoma 6-3 (8-4)
LSU 5-4 (8-4)
Auburn 5-4 (8-4)
Texas 5-4 (7-5)
Vanderbilt 5-4 (6-6)
Alabama 4-5 (7-5)
Texas A&M 3-6 (6-6)
Kentucky 3-6 (5-7)
Florida 2-7 (4-8)
Mississippi State 1-8 (3-9)
Arkansas 0-9 (2-10)
Eight teams going 5-4 or 6-3, and only Mizzou and South Carolina doing better? An all-Columbia matchup in the SEC title game? I’m in. That’s like 2013 on steroids.
Meanwhile, this reality also gives us a six-way tie for second in the American and a three-way tie for second in the ACC among 6-3 Miami, 6-3 Louisville and 6-2 Clemson. Nonsense everywhere!
Which surprise SEC team wins the title game? Mizzou! The Tigers blow out the Gamecocks by 19, then beat No. 10 Notre Dame and No. 3 Texas Tech by one point each to make an amazing national title game appearance. It ends as every Mizzou fan would expect, however, with a 33-point title game loss to Ohio State.
Simulation No. 42: It’s Indiana’s world
We have to accept that there’s a possibility that Indiana never loses again. In this reality, the Hoosiers again go 12-0, thump Oregon in the Big Ten title game, then beat No. 9 TCU by nine in the CFP quarterfinals, No. 5 Miami by 29 in the semis and No. 6 Oklahoma by 14 in the final to win back-to-back national titles.
Simulation No. 883,870: Fit to be tied
Four-way tie atop the SEC, including 8-1 Kentucky. Four-way tie atop the Big Ten. Four-way tie atop the Big 12. Five-way tie atop the ACC, including 6-2 North Carolina. We live in an era of intricate tiebreakers. Indiana masters this universe with another trip to the national title game … but is tripped up by mighty Kentucky.
Simulation No. 1,134: Dabo’s back!
Dabo Swinney’s redemption! Clemson races to 12-0, beats Duke by 29 in the ACC title game, then knocks out Georgia in the Peach Bowl, Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl and Ohio State in the title game to win the whole thing. It’s 2018 all over again!
Simulation No. 31,929: ACC living the dream
I wanted to find a scenario in which we get an all-ACC national title game that doesn’t feature Miami. Because a million simulations is a whole lot of simulations, we got one! Unbeaten Cal beats Virginia Tech in the ACC title game, takes down No. 11 UNLV and No. 3 Notre Dame in the CFP before again meeting Virginia Tech in the national title game. Tosh Lupoi and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele: national champions.
Simulation No. 834,000: At a loss
We have a five-loss national champion! At 7-5, BYU reaches the Big 12 title game thanks to an incredible eight-way tie for second place in the conference, then upsets Texas Tech and gets the 12-seed in the CFP. From there, the Cougars upset No. 5 LSU, No. 1 Wisconsin (!) and No. 4 Syracuse (??) to earn a spot in the national title game against No. 5 Northwestern (???).
Is the computer breaking down here?
Simulation No. 999,123: Huh?
Final four: LSU, BYU, Wyoming and Southern Miss.
Hmm.
Simulation No. 424,242: Check, please
Final four: Akron, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech and Maryland.
Maybe a million was too many simulations.
