Which team will pick No. 1 overall in the 2021 NFL draft? Through three weeks, the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) projects the winless New York Giants and New York Jets with the best chances to get the top selection. That comes after the preseason favorites to get the top pick — the Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Football Team — each picked up early-season wins.
Each week during the season, FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games, as well as each team’s average draft position in the simulations.
Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2021 NFL draft (updated on Sept. 29):
Average draft position: 4.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 29.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 74.7%
Average draft position: 4.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 19.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 66.2%
Average draft position: 7.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 9.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 46.5%
Average draft position: 7.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 8.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 46.5%
Average draft position: 8.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 39.7%
Average draft position: 9.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 34.7%
Average draft position: 8.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 4.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 31.7%
Average draft position: 8.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 28.6%
Average draft position: 10.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 22.3%
Average draft position: 10.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 21.5%
Average draft position: 10.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 21.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 52.9%
Average draft position: 10.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 21.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 51.9%
Average draft position: 11.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 16%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 44.9%
Average draft position: 12.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 13.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 40.2%
Average draft position: 16.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 17.3%
Average draft position: 16.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 15.8%
Average draft position: 18.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 11.6%
Average draft position: 18.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 11.1%
Average draft position: 23.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 7%
Average draft position: 20.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5.7%
Average draft position: 21.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.2%
Average draft position: 22.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.7%
Average draft position: 22.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.2%
Average draft position: 22.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2%
Average draft position: 23.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.6%
Average draft position: 23.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.4%
Average draft position: 23.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.7%
Average draft position: 24.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.8%
Average draft position: 25.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.4%
Average draft position: 27.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.2%
Average draft position: 26.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.4%
Average draft position: 29.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%
