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Marcel Louis-JacquesESPN
ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — The NFL sent a memo Wednesday detailing various scenarios in which the top teams in each conference can clinch a playoff berth in Week 14 — a list that included the Buffalo Bills (9-3).
Two years ago, the chatter surrounding the Bills this time of year revolved around who they would be able to select with their eventual top-10 pick in the 2018 NFL draft. Now, Buffalo fans are debating whether to root for the Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) to beat the Miami Dolphins (8-4) and extend the Bills’ lead in the AFC East, or for a Miami victory that would boost Buffalo’s chances to take the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
How things change.
While life is good for the Bills, they haven’t stamped themselves as a Super Bowl contender. Sunday’s game against the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) represents a chance to square themselves with the conference’s best after faltering in their previous two games against AFC division leaders — the Tennessee Titans (Week 5) and Chiefs (Week 6).
Their win against the San Francisco 49ers (5-7) on Monday Night Football was impressive, but came against a hobbled NFC team. A prime-time victory against the Steelers (11-1) would set the tone for a critical final four games of the regular season and give Buffalo a signature win against a conference opponent.
Bills coach Sean McDermott said what makes the Steelers elite starts with his counterpart, coach Mike Tomlin.
“What you see with the Steelers is you see Mike’s personality on the team,” McDermott said. “He’s got a very dynamic personality, he’s … class all the way through and I think that you see that with their football team. They play at a high level, they play well week to week and they’re led by one of the greatest coaches, I think, that’s been around our game in Mike.”
It’s a rematch of last season’s playoff-clinching victory for Buffalo. While a playoff berth is at stake, that’s about where the similarities between the two games end, as both teams look drastically different from their 2019 versions.
Pittsburgh enters Sunday’s game fresh off its first loss of the season after a series of close calls. Despite playing the NFL’s easiest schedule to date according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Steelers represent the Bills’ toughest remaining test. And Buffalo is playing better as it prepares to face the Steelers than it was before facing the Titans and Chiefs.
Since Week 9, the Bills own the NFL’s highest-scoring offense at 33.8 points per game and its second-best passing offense at 302.5 yards per game. Quarterback Josh Allen‘s play, in particular, has vaulted him back into the MVP conversation after winning his third AFC Offensive Player of the Week award in Week 13.
Defensively, the Bills are hemorrhaging yards at first glance, allowing the second-most yards per game in the NFL since Week 9, most of which are coming in the fourth quarter, when they have allowed a league-high 127.5 yards per game. However, Buffalo owns the league’s fourth-best third-down defense in the fourth quarter and is tied for the league lead in fourth-quarter turnovers.
Buffalo’s pass rush has done its job over the past four weeks, ranking 10th in sacks and fourth in pass-rush win rate.
“Probably over the last five, six weeks, just seeing how much better we’re playing from an aggressive, attacking standpoint and when we’re taking the football away, that stands out and that’s how you win games,” Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier said. “We’ve improved so much in third down, red zone. We’re doing some things that affect the game and give you a chance to win.
“Statistically, the yards are not going to show that. [San Francisco] got so many junk yards [Monday] in the fourth quarter late, and some third downs late in the game as well. So, you may not have the statistical numbers to show that you’re helping the team win, but it’s evidenced by the way the guys are playing.”
The Bills need to be at their best against Pittsburgh, which leads the NFL in takeaways and points allowed this season while ranking in the top 10 against both the run and the pass. There is an opportunity for Buffalo’s defense to shine Sunday, as the Steelers’ offense ranks 21st in the NFL, even with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who did not play in last year’s contest.
“There’s certainly more work we’ve got to put in and more meat on the bone for us here,” said McDermott, referencing Buffalo’s room for improvement. “I think the coaches … they’ve done a great job of developing the players that we have on our roster. And you can’t say that at every place and you can’t say that every season.
“The players, to their credit, have really embraced the growth mindset, and some of those conversations are hard, some of those are truth-oriented conversations, but they’re necessary.”
