What the Kremlin had assumed in 2022 would be a short, successful “military operation” has become the bloodiest conflict in Europe since World War Two.
Yet a confident President Vladimir Putin continues to predict victory for Russia.
“There will never be ‘victory’,” counters Muratov. “Because what has been going on for nearly five years – no matter how it ends – can no longer be considered a victory.
“It cannot be a victory when two Slavic nations have ripped a million people to shreds. Or more than a million.”
“It seems to me that the situation with Ukraine now is this: you can destroy it, but you cannot conquer it. What do I mean by destroy? Continued escalation all the way to the use of a nuclear weapon.”
Does he really believe the Kremlin leader would use nuclear weapons in this war?
“All those political experts who say ‘Putin thinks this’ or ‘Putin is scared of that’…they’re all charlatans,” claims Muratov. “It’s in the same league as astrology. Nobody knows what’s going on in Vladimir Putin’s head. And I don’t know.
“I see things only as a journalist. I study big data. And since the beginning of the year the need to use nuclear weapons has been mentioned more than 500 times. When wackos say this, I pay no attention. But I’ve heard it discussed on state TV. And at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, a state-run event, one of the speakers talked up the use of nuclear weapons as something favourable, something good.”
When he announced the mass invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin spoke of “ensuring the security of Russia.”
“Tell me, has security increased?” Muratov asks. “With Ukrainian drones now attacking warehouses of [Russia’s largest online retailer] Wildberries; with the petrol crisis, the disruption to mobile internet, the political prisoners? Has security increased, or not?”
Despite opinion polls registering a fall in Putin’s domestic approval ratings, Russia’s president – Muratov believes – retains a tight grip on power.
“Sorry, I don’t believe all this talk about a split among members of the elite, about secret conspiracies. The country is run by Vladimir Putin. They’re frightened of him.
“And this fear is reinforced in every way by his main support base: the Federal Security Service (FSB).”
As critical as he is of his own government, he has few illusions about the West.
“[Putin] knows very well the true value of European leaders. On the one hand they talk to him about human rights. He laughs out loud because, with the other hand, they sign agreements – or used to sign agreements – with Russia on trading oil, gas, diamonds…all that stuff. When they talk to Putin about European values, he truly laughs out loud. He knows the true value of people who preached to him those values.”
In Russia Muratov has been designated a “foreign agent”, a label often used to punish critics of the Kremlin. “Foreign agents” have limited rights: they’re banned from teaching, from taking part in elections; if they sell their flat, they can’t access the assets. The label is also designed to stigmatise, to create the sense in society of an enemy within.
Yet the journalist appears reluctant to focus on the pressures he’s under, preferring instead to highlight the plight of compatriots in prison.
“What worries me most right now is that no one in the world is interested in the political prisoners who were first to speak out against the land grab in our neighbouring country,” Muratov explains.
