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ESPN staff
Which team will pick No. 1 overall in the 2021 NFL draft? After the New York Jets picked up their first win of the 2020 season in Week 15, the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) now projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to get the top selection. Both the Jaguars and Jets have only one win, but the Jags would win the strength of schedule tiebreaker if both teams finish 1-15. The Jets had been the favorites for the No. 1 spot since Week 5.
Each week during the season, FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games, as well as each team’s average draft position in the simulations.
Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2021 NFL draft (updated on Dec. 21):
Average draft position: 1.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 74.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Clinched
Average draft position: 1.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 25.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Clinched
Average draft position: 3.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 99.9%
Average draft position: 5.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 60%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 96%
Average draft position: 6.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 44.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 89.9%
Average draft position: 8.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 16.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 75.3%
Average draft position: 8.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 18.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 79.4%
Average draft position: 8.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 11.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 71%
Average draft position: 9.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 19.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 72%
Average draft position: 9.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 21.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 77.7%
Average draft position: 10.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 10.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 52.9%
Average draft position: 11.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 30.5%
Average draft position: 11.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 29.6%
Average draft position: 13.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.9%
Average draft position: 14.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.8%
Average draft position: 16.8
Average draft position: 17.2
Average draft position: 18.6
Average draft position: 19.3
Average draft position: 20.0
Average draft position: 23.2
Average draft position: 23.7
Average draft position: 24.5
Average draft position: 24.6
Average draft position: 24.9
Average draft position: 25.1
Average draft position: 25.1
Average draft position: 27.0
Average draft position: 27.1
Average draft position: 27.6
Average draft position: 29.0
Average draft position: 30.4
