We are through three weeks of the 2021 season, and many quarterbacks continued their early-season elite play in Week 3, including the Raiders’ Derek Carr, the Rams’ Matthew Stafford (our current Total QBR leader), the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins and the Broncos’ Teddy Bridgewater. But we also saw uneven performances from the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts and the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger.
On a weekly basis throughout the season, I will rate my current confidence in each quarterback’s play. Who is unstoppable and in the MVP conversation? Who is struggling and needs to find consistency? Who is rising, and who is falling, after each week’s game slate? Which rookies are exceeding expectations, and which veterans are leading their offenses to playoff contention? And remember, this is based on the present, not future potential.
True backups will not be included, though teams with multiple legitimate starting options might have multiple QBs listed in the rankings. Backups in line to play for injured starters will also be ranked. The list will be accompanied each week with some of the biggest takeaways and lingering thoughts from the recent performances under center, including what both the tape and numbers say about some of the game’s starting quarterbacks. Here are this week’s QB rankings and some notes regarding the position.
Last updated: Sept. 29
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Rankings | Week 3 takeaways
Tannenbaum’s current QB rankings
Biggest takeaways from Week 3
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The top seven QBs in my rankings — Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray — are interchangeable to me. It’s safe to say any NFL team would be thrilled to have any one of them under center right now. But the quarterback who keeps knocking on the door and isn’t far away from this group is the Raiders’ Derek Carr. He had the throw of the week in my mind, which is saying something considering how unstoppable Rodgers looked on Sunday night. With 2:43 left in overtime against Miami, Carr hit a second-and-15 pass to receiver Bryan Edwards for 34 yards. Edwards had just 0.6 yards of separation as the pass arrived, and the connection had a 23.6% chance of being completed, per NFL Next Gen Stats. The big play put Las Vegas on Miami’s 46-yard line and jumped its win probability from 42.6% to 74.5%. (Daniel Carlson ultimately hit a winning kick.)
Ladies and gentlemen, Bryan Edwards.@B__ED89 showing out again.#MIAvsLV | Live on CBS pic.twitter.com/PdjsvZ5JqM
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) September 26, 2021
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Arizona’s Kyler Murray has the third-highest completion percentage above expectation at 9.8%, per NFL Next Gen Stats (behind Teddy Bridgewater and Prescott). He’s playing the best football of his career. The Cardinals easily navigated to 3-0 with another win against Jacksonville, but I’m still not sure why they opted for a 68-yard field goal attempt to end the first half Sunday, rather than letting Murray unleash one into the end zone. Did we forget about his Hail Mary pass to beat Buffalo last season?
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I thought Rams QB Matthew Stafford outplayed Brady on Sunday, and overall, he has been pretty much flawless on the season. He is averaging 10.2 yards per attempt, good for second in the NFL. His 75-yard TD pass to DeSean Jackson in the third quarter highlighted a great day for him. He moved up from No. 9 to No. 4 this week.
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Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson has the longest time to throw in the league at 3.25 seconds, but he is 27th in completion percentage at 60.9%. Sure, the Ravens’ receivers have six drops (tied for fourth in the league), but I still want to see more here.
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Yes, Miami’s stand-in starter Jacoby Brissett moved up to No. 24 on my rankings, even after a loss. He started OK, but I felt like he improved as the game against the Raiders progressed. How about the 2-yard touchdown run on fourth down at the end of regulation, making Raiders linebacker Denzel Perryman miss, and then the 2-point conversion? I’m intrigued to see how he does against the Colts this week.
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Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger looks his age at 39 and is slow in the pocket. And the stats back it up. Roethlisberger is getting a rid of the ball in 2.35 seconds, fastest in the league, and averaging 6.2 yards per attempt (24th). The field is being condensed for him, and opposing defensive coordinators know that.
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Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins was outstanding against Seattle, going 30-for-38 with three touchdowns. Helping his cause this year: Receivers Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are brutal matchups for most teams. Cousins’ eight passing touchdowns, zero interceptions and 73.9% completion percentage are all personal bests in his first three games of a season. It was time to get him a little higher in my ranking.
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Buffalo’s Josh Allen has rebounded really well from a poor opening day. When throwing at least 10 yards downfield, he is 12-of-17 with three TDs this season.
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Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts looked overmatched by the Cowboys on Monday night. I’m not seeing much when it comes to tempo, poise and eye level in the pocket. I thought he ran prematurely on a number of plays Monday, and he’ll need to play better and more consistent to convince Philly he’s its QB of the future. Hurts slid to No. 27 this week for me.
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The Bears face another QB decision this week, with even Nick Foles apparently being in the mix to get the call. If it were me, I would start Justin Fields again over Foles and Andy Dalton — even if Dalton is healthy. I think he’s their best short-term and long-term solution. The Bears need to create a protection-first process — the rookie QB was sacked nine times on Sunday against the Browns — and give Fields room to move the pocket. That’ll put Fields in the best position possible to be successful.
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Looking ahead to this week, I can’t wait to see how New England defends Tom Brady. My gut tells me he’ll see a lot of soft zones to test his patience.
