We are through 14 weeks of the 2021 season, and we got some more fantastic quarterback play from the current MVP front-runner, Tom Brady. He threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns in an overtime win, but he wasn’t the only one to stand out this week. Justin Herbert connected on an incredible deep-ball TD, Matthew Stafford led the Rams to a statement win on Monday night, and Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes led their offenses to resurgent performances.
On a weekly basis throughout the season, I will rate my current confidence in each quarterback’s play. Who is unstoppable and in the MVP conversation? Who is struggling and needs to find consistency? Who is rising, and who is falling, after each week’s game slate? Which rookies are exceeding expectations, and which veterans are leading their offenses to playoff contention? And remember, this is based on the present, not future potential.
True backups will not be included, though teams with multiple legitimate starting options might have multiple QBs listed in the rankings. Backups in line to play for injured starters will also be ranked. The list will be accompanied each week by some of the biggest takeaways and lingering thoughts from the recent performances under center, including what both the tape and numbers say about some of the game’s starting quarterbacks. Here are this week’s QB rankings and some notes regarding the position.
Last updated: Dec. 15
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Rankings | Week 14 takeaways
Tannenbaum’s current QB rankings
Biggest takeaways from Week 14
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This past Sunday, Booger McFarland, Chris Berman, Chris Mortensen and I had a long and spirited debate about the starting qualifications of the Eagles’ Gardner Minshew. My simple and fundamental point: Based on how he has played — which admittedly is a small sample — he’s one of the top 32 quarterbacks on the planet right now. I actually have him at No. 21 this week. It’s safe to say not everyone in that room agreed with me, but I don’t think moving Minshew back to the bench is as straightforward as it might seem.
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Rams signal-caller Matthew Stafford completed seven of eight play-action passes for 129 yards and a TD (plus-9.7 pass-play expected points added) on Monday night. He leads the NFL in pass EPA (plus-52.0) on play-action dropbacks this season, despite using it at the 25th-highest rate among qualified QBs (22%).
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Seattle’s Russell Wilson completed an incredible 53-yard touchdown to receiver Tyler Lockett. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the pass traveled 62.0 yards in the air, the third-longest completed pass by a QB this season, and Wilson’s longest since Week 9 of 2020 (64.4). It carried a completion probability of 30.7%.
.@TDLockett12 keeps getting wide open and @DangeRussWilson keeps finding him. This one for a 55-yard TD. 👏#ProBowlVote #WPMOYChallenge
📺 #SEAvsHOU on FOX pic.twitter.com/OYVTegphCJ
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 12, 2021
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Thought the Wilson pass was nice? The Chargers’ Justin Herbert had the throw of the week … and maybe the year. He hit receiver Jalen Guyton for a 59-yard touchdown that traveled 63.8 yards in the air, the second-longest completion in the NFL this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. It was Herbert’s 10th career completion that traveled 55-plus yards in the air, the most in the NFL since 2020. Candidly, I don’t know how many other QBs would have even attempted that pass. In all, Herbert had three touchdown passes against the Giants, and his second of the three put him in company with Dan Marino as the only QBs in NFL history with 60 passing touchdowns over their first two seasons. He is up to fourth in my rankings this week.
justin herbert said let’s gooooooooo #ProBowlVote + #JustinHerbert #ProBowlVote + @_dreamjg
(📺: fox) pic.twitter.com/3dAVMluV56
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) December 12, 2021
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The Packers’ Aaron Rodgers threw four touchdown passes and zero interceptions against the Bears for the seventh time in his career on Sunday night, the most by a QB against a single opponent, per ESPN Stats & Information. His pinpoint accuracy looks like it’s somehow still improving.
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According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Justin Fields has gained plus-93 rushing yards over expectation on scrambles this season, trailing only Josh Allen (plus-110) and Lamar Jackson (plus-152). While the Chicago QB’s pick-six throw to Rasul Douglas was a step back, Fields looks like he’s making progress as the season progresses.
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The Bengals’ Joe Burrow completed four of his six deep pass attempts (20-plus air yards) for 105 yards and two touchdowns. He leads the NFL this season with nine deep-pass TDs after throwing only one in his rookie year.
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Patrick Mahomes continued his success on quick passes (under 2.5 seconds to throw) in the Chiefs’ victory over the Raiders, completing 11 of 12 attempts for 96 yards and two scores. In all, he has plus-82.3 pass-play EPA this season — 20.7 more than any other QB, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
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On Monday night, Arizona’s Kyler Murray finished with 444 total yards (passing plus rushing), the most he has ever had in a game, per ESPN Stats & Information. But he also accounted for zero touchdowns, and his two interceptions were hugely consequential in the outcome of the game.
