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ESPN staff
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the new favorites to have the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NFL draft, according to the updated first-round projections from the ESPN Football Power Index. The 2-12 Jaguars — who picked first in the 2021 draft — took over the top spot after the Detroit Lions‘ stunning upset win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15. The Lions are now 2-11-1, with that tie looming large in the race for the top spot.
There already have been five trades involving first-round picks in the 2022 draft, with the New York Giants and New York Jets both projected to have two top-10 picks. The Philadelphia Eagles are projected to have three picks in the first round, thanks to deals with the Miami Dolphins and the Indianapolis Colts — the latter of which involves a conditional pick based on quarterback Carson Wentz’s playing time. After spraining both ankles in Week 2, Wentz has played nearly every snap since.
Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games, and the order is based on each team’s average draft position in the simulations.
Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2022 NFL draft (updated Dec. 20):
Average draft position: 1.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 56.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 99.9%
Average draft position: 2.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 23.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 98.9%
Average draft position: 2.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 9.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 99.6%
Average draft position: 3.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 11.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 99.4%
Average draft position: 6.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 31.1%
Average draft position: 6.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 31.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 97.9%
Average draft position: 6.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 34.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 96.4%
Average draft position: 9.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 77%
Average draft position: 10.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 57%
Average draft position: 12.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 40.1%
Average draft position: 12.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 32.6%
Average draft position: 12.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 33.6%
Average draft position: 13.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 16.4%
Average draft position: 14.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 19.2%
Average draft position: 15.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 18.9%
Average draft position: 15.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5.5%
Average draft position: 18.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.1%
Average draft position: 18.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.6%
Average draft position: 19.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.5%
Average draft position: 21.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%
Average draft position: 21.9
Average draft position: 22.0
Average draft position: 22.1
Average draft position: 24.3
Average draft position: 24.8
Average draft position: 25.5
Average draft position: 26.0
Average draft position: 26.3
Average draft position: 27.1
Average draft position: 28.1
Average draft position: 28.5
Average draft position: 29.2
