Week 18 has already featured a ton of line movement. Eight games moved at least a field goal from their lookahead lines, with four games moving at least six points, largely due to playoff motivations changing for various teams.
However, motivation in Week 18 doesn’t always lead to a cover. Since 2009, teams that have neither clinched a playoff spot nor been eliminated are 19-33-1 ATS against teams that have either clinched or been eliminated.
Entering the final week of the season, unders, road teams and underdogs have all been profitable. However, home teams went 13-2-1 ATS last week, the most covers home teams have ever had in a single week in the Super Bowl era.
Season recap
Home teams: 13-2-1 ATS last week (best week all season); 120-133-3 ATS this season (.474)
Home underdogs: 5-0 ATS last week; 49-50 ATS this season (.495)
Favorites: 8-7-1 ATS last week; 120-130-3 ATS this season (.480)
Unders: 10-6 last week; 139-114-3 this season (.547)
Best teams ATS: Packers, Cowboys (12-4)
Worst team ATS: Jaguars (4-12)
Best over teams: Jets, Vikings (10-6)
Best under team: Broncos (12-4 under)
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at Denver Broncos, Saturday at 4:30 ET
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Denver has been at least a 9-point underdog one time this season. Denver upset Dallas as a 10-point underdog in Week 9.
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Denver has been a home underdog of 9 points or more only twice in the past 30 seasons entering this week. It was a 17-point home underdog against New Orleans last season when it had no active quarterbacks. Prior to that, Denver had not been a 9-point home underdog since 1992 (+9 vs. Dallas) and it had not been a 9.5-point home underdog since 1987 against the Los Angeles Raiders with replacement players. The last time Denver was a 9.5-point home underdog with a quarterback active who was not a replacement player was 1975.
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Kansas City is 9-2 ATS against Denver since 2016 and 4-1 ATS against Vic Fangio.
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Kansas City has covered six of its past seven games (did not cover last week at Cincinnati).
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Kansas City is 46-24-1 ATS on the road under Andy Reid. Patrick Mahomes is 20-11-1 ATS on the road; however, he is only 1-3 ATS when laying at least 7.5 points on the road.
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Denver games are 12-4 to the under this season, the best under mark in the NFL. Overall, unders are 29-19 under Vic Fangio.
Dallas Cowboys (-7) at Philadelphia Eagles, Saturday at 8:15 ET
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Dallas has not been favored by at least 6 points against Philadelphia since 2012 (-10 at home). The last time Dallas was favored by that many points on the road against Philadelphia was in 1999 (-10, lost outright).
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Dallas is 12-4 ATS this season, tied with Green Bay for the best mark in the NFL. Dallas is 9-3 ATS as a favorite, 7-1 ATS on the road and 4-0 ATS as a road favorite. Dallas is also 10-1 ATS in conference games and 5-0 ATS in division games.
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Eight of Dallas’ past 10 games have gone under the total.
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Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season (0-6 outright).
Green Bay Packers (-4) at Detroit Lions, Sunday at 1 ET
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Green Bay was an 11-point favorite on the lookahead line. It was Green Bay -2 on Wednesday morning before moving to Green Bay -4 later that day.
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Green Bay is 12-4 ATS this season, tied with Dallas for the best mark in the NFL.
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Green Bay is 3-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season.
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Detroit has covered three straight home games
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Detroit is 10-6 ATS this season, including 9-3 ATS when getting at least 4 points. Detroit’s 10 covers this season are tied with 1998 Chicago (10-6 ATS) for the most covers in a single season by a 12-loss team in the Super Bowl era. With one more cover, it would clinch the best ATS season by a 12-loss team in the Super Bowl era. It has already clinched being the first 12-loss team with a winning ATS record since 2001 Detroit (8-7-1 ATS).
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Detroit is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings against Green Bay (0-1 ATS this season).
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3), Sunday at 1 ET
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Chicago is 3-9 ATS as an underdog this season.
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Minnesota is 2-8 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season (1-2 ATS this season). Mike Zimmer had been 26-11-1 ATS in his first six seasons as a home favorite prior to 2020.
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Minnesota is 34-18-1 ATS after a loss under Mike Zimmer.
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Six of Minnesota’s past seven games have gone over the total, including all three home games in that span.
Indianapolis Colts (-15.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 ET
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Indianapolis was an 8.5-point favorite on the lookahead line.
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Jacksonville is 1-0 outright this season as a 14-point underdog, beating Buffalo as a 15.5-point underdog in Week 9. That was the most points Jacksonville has ever been an underdog by in a game in franchise history.
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Indianapolis has not been a 14-point road favorite since 2009, and it hasn’t been a 15-point road favorite since 2005 (-15.5). The current line of 15.5 would match Indianapolis’ largest line as a road favorite in the past 45 seasons.
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Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS on the road this season.
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Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS as a road favorite in the last two seasons.
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Jacksonville is 4-12 ATS this season, worst in the NFL, including 0-7 ATS in its past seven games.
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Jacksonville is 11-1-1 ATS against Indianapolis since 2015 with four straight covers.
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Jacksonville games are 11-5 to the under this season, but the past three games have gone over the total. Jacksonville team totals are 14-2 to the under this season.
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Since 2009, teams that have neither clinched a playoff spot nor been eliminated are 19-33-1 ATS against teams that have either clinched or been eliminated.
Tennessee Titans (-10) at Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 ET
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Tennessee has not been at least a 10.5-point road favorite since 2008 at Detroit.
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Since 2001, teams that pull off a 10-point upset in the first regular-season meeting are 6-9 ATS and 3-12 outright in the second meeting. The last team to be a double-digit underdog in the second meeting after upsetting an opponent as a double-digit underdog in the first meeting was 2001 New England against Indianapolis. New England also pulled off the upset in the second meeting (+10).
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Houston is 15-6 ATS against Tennessee since 2011 including its upset win in Week 11 as a 10-point underdog. That Week 11 matchup is the only other time Tennessee has been a double-digit favorite in the past two seasons.
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Tennessee games have gone under the total in four straight games.
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Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in division games this season, with the only ATS loss coming against Houston.
Washington Football Team (-7) at New York Giants, Sunday at 1 ET
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Washington has not been at least a 7-point road favorite since 2008 (two games of -7 and -7.5). Washington has not been at least a 6.5-point road favorite since 2009 (-6.5 at Detroit). It has not been at least a 4-point road favorite since 2019 (-6.5 at Miami). In the past 25 seasons, Washington is 4-8 outright and 3-9 ATS as at least a 4-point road favorite. Washington has been favored by at least 6 points against New York only one time in the past 20 seasons (2017). The last time it was favored by that many points on the road at New York was in 1992 (-8).
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Washington had been an underdog in 12 straight games entering this week. Taylor Heinicke is 2-0 outright and 1-1 ATS as a favorite (did not cover at home in Week 2 vs New York).
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New York is 0-5 ATS in its past five games since Daniel Jones got hurt.
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Eight of New York’s past 10 games went under the total. New York home games are 6-0-1 to the under this season and 10-0-1 in the past 11 games.
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New York is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings and 12-5 ATS against Washington since 2013.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-6), Sunday at 1 ET
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Cleveland opened as a 3-point favorite and moved to -6 once Joe Burrow was ruled out.
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Zac Taylor is 4-18 outright and 9-12-1 ATS with quarterbacks other than Burrow.
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All seven meetings have gone over the total since Cleveland drafted Baker Mayfield in 2018.
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Baker Mayfield is 10-19-1 ATS in his career as a favorite, including 0-4 ATS in his past four such games.
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Five of Cleveland’s past six games have gone under the total.
New England Patriots (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 4:25 ET
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New England was a 2.5-point favorite on the lookahead line.
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New England is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 games and 6-1 ATS in its past seven games as a favorite.
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Miami has won five straight home games, going 4-1 ATS.
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Brian Flores is 14-8 ATS as a single-digit underdog.
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Miami is 4-2 outright in the past six meetings and 5-3 outright in the past eight meetings despite being an underdog in all but one of those games. Miami upset New England as a 3.5-point underdog in Week 1.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-16), Sunday at 4:25 ET
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New York games are 10-6 to the over this season, tied for the best mark in the NFL. They are 10-3 to the over in the past 13 games.
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New York has covered three straight games, its longest streak since Weeks 10-12 of 2019. It has not covered four straight since Weeks 3-7 of 2017.
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New York has covered back-to-back road games after starting the season 0-5 ATS on the road. New York is 12-26-1 ATS on the road since 2017 and 4-11 ATS over the past two seasons.
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New York is 0-11 outright in division games the past two seasons, going 3-8 ATS.
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Buffalo is the fourth team since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to be favored by at least 14 points six times in a single season (2007 New England, 1994 San Francisco, 1992 Buffalo).
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8), Sunday at 4:25 ET
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The lookahead line on this game last week at Caesars Sportsbook was Tampa Bay -16.5.
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Carolina has failed to cover six straight games.
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Carolina is 2-8 ATS after a loss this season.
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Tampa Bay is 3-0 ATS against Carolina since signing Tom Brady.
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Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its past six home games.
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Carolina is 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season.
New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 4:25 ET
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Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in home games this season (excluding London home game).
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New Orleans is 34-14 ATS on the road since 2016 (18-8 ATS as road favorite). Taysom Hill is 4-1 ATS on the road in his career.
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Taysom Hill is 6-2 ATS in his career as a starter with the under going 7-1 in those eight starts.
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New Orleans games have gone under the total in six straight games. Atlanta games have gone under the total in seven of its past eight games.
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Since 2009, teams that have neither clinched a playoff spot nor been eliminated are 19-33-1 ATS against teams that have either clinched or been eliminated.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5), Sunday at 4:25 ET
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Arizona has lost four straight home games outright, all as a favorite.
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Seattle games are 9-2-1 to the under in the Seahawks’ past 12 games, and Seattle road games are 6-1-1 to the under this season.
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Russell Wilson is 25-14-2 ATS in his career as an underdog (2-3 ATS this season).
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Arizona is 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings against Seattle.
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Arizona is 4-1 ATS in division games this season.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5), Sunday at 4:25 ET
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San Francisco has covered all three meetings over the past two seasons. Overall, Kyle Shanahan is 5-2 ATS and 4-3 outright against Sean McVay, despite being an underdog in each game.
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Kyle Shanahan is 24-17 ATS as an underdog, including 11-4 ATS as an underdog since 2019.
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Los Angeles has covered four of its past five games (did not cover last week).
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Los Angeles’ past four home games have gone under the total.
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Since 2009, teams that have neither clinched a playoff spot nor been eliminated are 19-33-1 ATS against teams that have either clinched or been eliminated.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 8:20 ET
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Los Angeles games have gone over the total in five straight games. Las Vegas games have gone under in three straight. Las Vegas home games are 11-5 to the over, but the past three have all gone under.
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Las Vegas is 2-5 ATS in its past seven home games.
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Justin Herbert is 1-3 outright and ATS in his career as a road favorite.
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Since 2015, the home team in the final prime-time game of the season has gone 0-5 outright and 1-4 ATS (Philadelphia covered against Washington last season).
