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ESPN staff
The Jacksonville Jaguars have locked up the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft, while the New York Jets have clinched the No. 2 pick. The Jets had been the favorites for the top spot since Week 5, according to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), but back-to-back wins in Weeks 15 and 16 means the Jaguars now get their chance at the top quarterback in the class. The rest of the top 10 is still undecided.
Each week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games, as well as each team’s average draft position in the simulations.
Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2021 NFL draft (updated on Dec. 28):
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Clinched
FPI chance to earn No. 2 pick: Clinched
Average draft position: 4.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 75.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Clinched
Average draft position: 4.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 62%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Clinched
Average draft position: 5.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 73.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Clinched
Average draft position: 6.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 40.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Clinched
Average draft position: 7.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 28.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 84.3%
Average draft position: 8.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 9.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 77%
Average draft position: 10.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 53.6%
Average draft position: 10.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Eliminated
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 45.4%
Average draft position: 11.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 10.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 49.2%
Average draft position: 12.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Eliminated
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 52.2%
Average draft position: 13.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Eliminated
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.4%
Average draft position: 13.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Eliminated
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.6%
Average draft position: 14.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Eliminated
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.2%
Average draft position: 16.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Eliminated
Average draft position: 16.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 36.2%
Average draft position: 18.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Eliminated
Average draft position: 19.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Eliminated
Average draft position: 20.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Eliminated
Average draft position: 22.2
Average draft position: 22.3
Average draft position: 22.8
Average draft position: 24.0
Average draft position: 25.1
Average draft position: 26.3
Average draft position: 26.5
Average draft position: 27.2
Average draft position: 27.5
Average draft position: 28.0
Average draft position: 29.2
Average draft position: 30.5
