Since the calendar turned to December, double-digit favorites have dominated against the spread, going 12-4-1 ATS, including 4-1 ATS last week. However, when big favorites have failed to cover, they have often lost outright, including the Los Angeles Chargers last week to the Houston Texans.
Eight double-digit underdogs have now won outright this season, tied for the most in any season in the past 25 years. All have come since Week 8, as six of the past nine weeks have featured a double-digit upset.
This week, four teams are double-digit favorites, including two potentially led by rookie quarterbacks. Mac Jones is on track to be the largest rookie favorite since the 1987 strike season, while Trey Lance could be the second-largest rookie favorite in one of his first two starts since 1987. Overall, rookie quarterbacks have struggled this season, going 19-33 ATS.
Season Stats
Home teams: 8-8 ATS last week, 107-131-2 ATS this season
Favorites: 8-7 ATS last week, 112-123-2 ATS this season
Overs: 9-7 last week, 106-129-3 this season
Best teams ATS: Dallas (12-3), Green Bay (11-4)
Worst teams ATS: Jacksonville (4-11), Chicago (5-10), New York Jets (5-10), Carolina (5-10)
Best over teams: Philadelphia, Minnesota, New York Jets (all 9-6)
Best under teams: Denver (12-3), Jacksonville (11-4)
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (NL), Sunday at 1 ET
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Indianapolis is 3-0 ATS in its past three games and 9-3 ATS in its past 12 games.
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All four meetings since 2016 have gone over the total.
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The over is 37-22 when Derek Carr covers spreads in his career.
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Sam Ehlinger might make his first career start. Rookie quarterbacks are 19-33 ATS against non-rookie quarterbacks this season.
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6), Sunday at 1 ET
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Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its past five home games.
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New York is 0-4 ATS since Daniel Jones was injured.
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New York is 0-4 ATS in its past four road games.
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New York has covered all three meetings since 2018.
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Chicago has been a 6-point favorite only once since the start of last season (Week 16 of 2020 at Jacksonville, covered 8-point spread).
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Chicago is 5-10 ATS this season, including 1-3 ATS with Andy Dalton, 3-7 ATS with Justin Fields and 1-0 ATS with Nick Foles.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5) at New York Jets, Sunday at 1 ET
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This is the ninth time Tampa Bay has been a double-digit favorite this season, the most by any team in a single season since 2007 New England (11).
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Tampa Bay is 6-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season.
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Double-digit road favorites are 6-5 outright and 5-6 ATS this season. New York is 1-1 outright and ATS as a double-digit home underdog, while Tampa Bay is 2-1 ATS and outright as a double-digit road favorite.
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Tom Brady‘s starts as a double-digit road favorite are 15-2 to the under since he came back from injury in 2009 (3-0 this season).
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New York games are 9-6 to the over this season, tied for the best over percentage in the NFL. Nine of the Jets’ past 12 games have gone over the total. The over is 6-1 when New York plays a team with a winning record.
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New York is 5-10 ATS this season (4-10 ATS as an underdog).
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New York is 10-2 outright and ATS all-time against Tampa Bay.
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Rookie quarterbacks are 19-33 ATS against non-rookie quarterbacks this season.
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Since 2014, Tom Brady is 11-0 outright against rookie quarterbacks (6-5 ATS). Brady is 8-11 ATS against rookie quarterbacks since 2010.
Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills (-14.5), Sunday at 1 ET
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Atlanta is 0-6 ATS against teams with winning records this season. The under is 5-1 in those games.
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Buffalo is 4-1 ATS against teams with losing records, though the one ATS loss was the largest upset this season, losing outright as a 15.5-point favorite against Jacksonville.
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Buffalo has gone over the total in three straight games. Atlanta has gone under the total in six of its past seven games.
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Matt Ryan is 6-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog with two outright wins. He has never been more than a 14-point underdog.
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If Buffalo closes as at least a 14.5-point favorite, it would be the fifth time this season Buffalo closes as that large of a favorite. That would tie the second-most games as more than a 14-point favorite since the 1970 merger (2007 New England: 9). Buffalo also hosts the New York Jets in Week 18.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Washington Football Team, Sunday at 1 ET
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Washington is 7-20-2 ATS after a loss since 2019.
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Philadelphia is 6-1-1 ATS against teams with losing records this season.
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Washington’s past four home games have gone under the total. Philadelphia’s past three games have gone over the total.
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Washington is 8-19-1 ATS in division games since 2017.
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Philadelphia is 6-2-1 ATS against Washington over the past five seasons.
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday at 1 ET
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Kansas City has won eight straight games outright, covering six straight games.
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Kansas City is 46-23-1 ATS on the road under Andy Reid. Patrick Mahomes is 20-10-1 ATS on the road.
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Joe Burrow is 8-2 ATS in his career as an underdog of at least three points, including 3-0 ATS at home.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-15.5), Sunday at 1 ET
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Jacksonville is a league-worst 4-11 ATS this season, though the only time it was at least a 15-point underdog, it won outright. Jacksonville is 0-6 ATS in its past six games.
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New England is 19-6 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2015 and 9-3 ATS since 2018. New England has not been a double-digit favorite since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay.
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The last rookie quarterback to be at least a 14-point favorite was Matt Ryan in Week 17 of 2008. The last rookie quarterback to be at least a 15-point favorite was replacement player Kevin Sweeney in 1987 (-21). Prior to that was Mike Kruczek in 1976.
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New England is 7-2 ATS in its past nine games (0-2 ATS in its past two games).
Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans (-3.5), Sunday at 1 ET
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Miami is 6-1 ATS in its past seven games.
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Miami’s past five road games went under the total. Tennessee’s past three home games have gone under.
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Miami is 19-8-1 ATS in its past 28 games as an underdog.
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Mike Vrabel is 9-5 ATS with more than six days between games, including 6-0 ATS since the start of 2019.
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In the past 35 seasons, teams on at least five-game winning streaks that are underdogs by at least three points are 35-53-3 ATS.
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1 ET
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Baltimore is 13-2 ATS as an underdog since drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018, including 9-1 ATS in Jackson’s starts.
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Los Angeles has covered four straight games.
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The over is 6-1 when Baltimore plays a team with a winning record this season and 5-1 when Baltimore is coming off a loss.
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Los Angeles is 11-6 ATS in games played at 1 ET under Sean McVay.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5), Sunday at 4:05 ET
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The under is 12-3 in Denver games this season and 29-18 under Vic Fangio. Both are the highest under percentages in those spans.
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Four straight Los Angeles games have gone over the total.
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Denver is 4-1 ATS against Los Angeles under Vic Fangio.
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Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its past six games as a favorite.
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-12.5), Sunday at 4:05 ET
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San Francisco has never been more than a 10-point favorite under Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan is 0-3-1 ATS as a favorite of 9.5-10 points. The last time San Francisco was more than a 10-point favorite, it lost outright in Week 9 of 2014 (-10.5 vs. St. Louis).
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Houston has won two games this season outright as a double-digit favorite. Only two teams in the past 20 seasons have won three games as a double-digit favorite within a season (2009 Oakland, 2019 Miami). 2009 Oakland is the only team in the past 25 seasons to win multiple games as at least a 13-point underdog. No team in the Super Bowl era has done it in back-to-back weeks.
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Trey Lance would be the second rookie quarterback to be a double-digit favorite in one of his first two NFL starts since the 1970 merger, excluding the 1987 strike season (Lamar Jackson: 13-point favorite in 2018).
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-7), Sunday at 4:25 ET
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Detroit is 10-5 ATS this season, including 9-2 ATS when getting at least four points and 6-1 ATS in its past seven games.
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Detroit’s 10 covers this season are tied with 1998 Chicago (10-6 ATS) for the most covers in a single season by a 12-loss team in the Super Bowl era. With one more cover, it would clinch the best ATS season by a 12-loss team in the Super Bowl era. It has already clinched being the first 12-loss team with a winning ATS record since 2001 Detroit (8-7-1 ATS).
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Detroit has covered four straight games following a loss.
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Seattle games are 10-4-1 to the under this season.
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Seattle is the fourth team since 2018 to be at least a six-point favorite despite entering the game with at least 10 losses. Each of the previous three lost the game outright, including Jacksonville in Week 15 against Houston this season.
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Seattle is 3-5 outright as a favorite this season.
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5), Sunday at 4:25 ET
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Dallas is 12-3 ATS this season, the best mark in the NFL, the best mark through 15 games by any team since 2016 New England, which went on to win the championship. Dallas’ 12 covers this season are its second most in a single season in the Super Bowl era, behind only a 13-3 ATS season in 1991.
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Dallas is 10-0 ATS in conference games. The only team in the Super Bowl era to go undefeated ATS in conference games was 1973 Denver (9-0-1 ATS).
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Arizona is 5-0 outright and ATS as an underdog this season, all on the road. Overall, Arizona is 7-1 ATS on the road this season.
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Arizona is 7-13-1 ATS in Week 10 or later under Kliff Kingsbury.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7.5), Sunday at 4:25 ET
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Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its past five games, all since Cam Newton became the starter.
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Carolina is 0-13 SU and 1-12 ATS in Cam Newton’s past 13 starts with the team.
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New Orleans is 0-4 ATS in its past three home games.
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Taysom Hill is 5-2 ATS and SU in his career as a starter. The under is 6-1 in those starts. He is 2-0 ATS as a favorite of at least five points.
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Carolina is 10-5 ATS on the road under Matt Rhule.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-13.5), Sunday at 8:20 ET
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Green Bay is 12-4 ATS in prime-time games under Matt LaFleur, including 4-0 ATS this season. Aaron Rodgers is 35-24-2 ATS in prime-time games.
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Minnesota is 34-17-1 ATS after a loss under Mike Zimmer including 5-2 ATS this season.
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All three meetings since the start of last season have gone over the total.
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The over is 8-2 when Green Bay faces division opponents since the start of last season.
Cleveland Browns (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers, Monday at 8 ET on ESPN
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This is the first time since 1989 where Cleveland is favored in both meetings against Pittsburgh. Cleveland has been favored in Pittsburgh only once since 1990 (-1.5 in 2019 when Devlin Hodges started at quarterback for Pittsburgh; Pittsburgh won outright). The last time Cleveland was favored by at least 2.5 points in Pittsburgh was in 1987 (-4).
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Mike Tomlin is 41-24-2 ATS in his career as an underdog, including 12-4-1 ATS as a home underdog (11-6 SU). Tomlin is 7-2 outright and ATS as a home underdog with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, including 2-0 outright this season.
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Home underdogs are 6-1 ATS in Monday games this season.
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Baker Mayfield is 10-19-1 ATS as a favorite (20-10 outfight). He is 3-7 ATS and 5-5 outright as a favorite.
